2018 Wild Card Game Archives - Page 2 of 3

Thoughts prior to the 2018 AL Wild Card Game

October 3, 2018 by Mike

A 100-win season hangs in the balance tonight. The Yankees had the third best record (100-62) and fourth best run differential (+182) in baseball in 2018, but, because the Red Sox had a historic season, the Yankees will play in the winner-take-all AL Wild Card Game tonight. Bummer. That 100-62 record is the best for a wild card team in the Wild Card Game era. I’m weirdly zen about all this. I’m sure I’ll be a wreck as we get closer to first pitch. Right now? I’m keeping it together. Here are some thoughts going into tonight’s do-or-die game against the Athletics.

1. The Yankees announced yesterday that Luis Severino will start the Wild Card Game, and the more I thought about it the last few days, the more I realized Severino should get the ball. I know the Athletics demolished him in Oakland last month (six runs in 2.2 innings), but I keep coming back to something David Cone has been saying: When you have a Ferrari, you don’t leave it in the garage. Severino is a Ferrari. It’s elite level stuff and, even with his second half skid, he’s been one of the top pitchers in MLB the last two years. It’s the same logic behind starting Gary Sanchez. In a winner-take-all situation, you put the game in the hands of your best players, and trust them to do what’s necessary to win. I know Severino has not been first half Severino since, well, the first half. And I know he got lit up in the Wild Card Game last year. He’s a year older now though, and more experienced, and I think that experience will help him. It can be so easy to overthink something like this. Sometimes you just have to shut your brain off, take a step back, and look at the big picture. Severino is far to talented too avoid in a game of this magnitude.

2. Looking at this more practically, in recent days I’ve become more convinced Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ just aren’t a great matchup against the Athletics. I know Happ pitched well in Oakland last month, but look at his spray chart from that game:

That is a few too many deep fly balls for me. Without the late night marine layer lingering over the Oakland Coliseum, Happ probably doesn’t have as much success. The Athletics hit fewer ground balls (39.7%) than any other team in baseball this season — they were years ahead of everyone else on the launch angle thing — and Happ is not a ground ball pitcher (40.1%). Sending him out there in Yankee Stadium against a righty heavy lineup loaded with fly ball hitters seems like bad news. As for Tanaka, he again posted MLB’s highest chase rate (40.7%) this year and also one of the highest home run rates (1.44 HR/9). The Athletics had the lowest chase rate in the league (27.6%) and the third highest home run total (227). To have success, Tanaka has to get hitters to chase out of the zone and limit mistakes out over the plate. The A’s appear to be a team that could give him trouble by not chasing out of the zone, and having the ability to hit any mistakes a mile. Beyond the whole “Severino is your most talented pitcher” thing, the case can be made Oakland’s lineup is particularly well-suited to face Happ and Tanaka. Either way, no matter who starts, I suspect the bullpen will be called into action at the first sign of trouble.

3. The first sign of trouble. I’ve been saying that a lot lately. “The bullpen will be active at the first sign of trouble.” What does that mean, exactly? Is the first sign of trouble a leadoff single in the first inning? A run allowed? Long at-bats that result in outs on hard-hit balls? I’m not sure what qualifies as the “first sign of trouble” and there’s probably no definitive answer to this. Chances are the Yankees will observe the game, read the pitcher, read the swings, and react accordingly. And that might mean sticking with a pitcher with two men on base after a borderline 3-2 pitch goes for a walk and a little nubber off the end of the bat turns into a ground ball with eyes. Based on the bullpenning hype and what I saw in our comments (RIP) and what I see on social media, my sense is that if Severino is left in long enough to allow two home runs and three runs and put runners on second and third with one out like he did in the Wild Card Game last year, Aaron Boone is going to get absolutely skewered. Joe Girardi had a short leash with Severino in last year’s Wild Card Game. Looking back at it, you almost wonder why Severino’s leash was that long. I feel like the expectation is Boone will have an even shorter leash this year. I foresee a lot of *runner reaches base* “get the bullpen up!” commentary on the way. I’m not sure how realistic that is.

4. My hunch is that, unless the Yankees get seven innings from Severino or something like that, Chad Green will be the first guy out of the bullpen. Regardless of situation. Clean inning, men on base, whatever. Green made 63 regular season appearances this year and 21 times he entered the game in the middle of an inning with runners on base. Considering the Yankees had the highest bullpen strikeout rate (30.2%) in baseball history this season — they’re the first team ever with four relievers with 90+ strikeouts (Green, Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson) — they were pretty crummy at stranding inherited runners. The bullpen allowed 32% of inherited runners to score this year. The league average was 31%. Green allowed 35% of inherited runners to score this season and was better than Betances (38%) and Robertson (37%). Jonathan Holder was at 34% and Chapman only entered the game in the middle of an inning with men on base five times. It’s not something he does often. My preference would be Robertson in the fireman role, though my opinion is jaded after seeing him do the Houdini thing so many times. Green and Robertson have essentially identical inherited runner strand rates (35% vs. 37%) and strikeout rates (31.5% vs. 32.2%). I’m not sure there’s a meaningful difference between the two in a fireman situation, meaning entering a game with runners on base in the middle of an inning. Green’s been throwing the ball very well lately — he struck out ten of 19 batters faced in his final five regular season appearances — and he might be the best bet to get the Yankees out of a jam at the moment.

5. So who’s closing tonight? The Yankees eased Chapman back into things following his knee injury. He made five appearances after returning from the disabled list and in four of them he entered in the seventh or eighth inning. In the other, he got the final two outs in the ninth after Holder gave up a home run to Brock Holt and made things unnecessarily interesting. Zach Britton handled closer duties the last week or two of the regular season and Boone has said Britton could remain the closer in the postseason. Here’s what he said during a recent radio interview:

“I could absolutely see (Britton) closing out some games. With Aroldis, he’s had a couple of good outings in a row where he’s been real effective, so we’ll continue to bring him along accordingly, making sure he bounces back alright. He’ll certainly be in that mix, but I could see Britton closing out some games. I could also see Chappy getting back to the point where he is an option, too. We’ll just kind of play that day by day, week by week as we go here.”

Saturday’s appearance was a good test for Chapman. He entered in the middle of an inning with men on base — again, he didn’t do that often this season — and got the strikeouts to end the inning. It was also the ninth inning, his usual inning, and it was a save situation. I think the Yankees want Chapman to be their closer in the postseason the same way I think they wanted Severino to start the Wild Card Game. That’s their preference. We know Chapman can pitch the ninth inning and close out big games in October. We saw him do it last year. The question is just his knee and whether he’s where he needs to be after missing a month. Chapman got rocked in his first game back. In his final four games though, he threw 3.2 hitless innings and struck out eight of the 13 batters he faced. My gut says Chapman is the closer tonight.

6. Tonight’s game has a chance to turn into a Home Run Derby. The Yankees led baseball in home runs this season and the Athletics were third. Yankee Stadium gives up a lot of homers. A lot. Also, the postseason ball was extra juiced last year. A record number of home runs were hit last postseason and several pitchers complained the ball was different. Specifically, it was extra slick, which made breaking balls a challenge, and also allowed the ball to travel further. (I suspect the same ball was used in the homer happy All-Star Game this year.) Two home run reliant teams in a home run ballpark with a possibly juiced baseball could get very interesting tonight. I like the Yankees chances against any team in a home run filled slugfest. But yeah, don’t be surprised if tonight turns into dinger city.

7. Guess I have to make a prediction, right? My predictions last year were pretty good! Not perfect, but in the ballpark. I had the Yankees rallying to win the Wild Card Game following an early Eddie Rosario two-run homer. That happened! I had the Yankees coming back from down two games to one to win the ALDS, which, technically, they did. (Don’t ask about my ALCS prediction.) For this year’s Wild Card Game, I’m thinking low-scoring game despite the home run potential. I’m going to say the Yankees win 3-2 in a game with zero homers. Zero. That feels like a very baseball thing to happen. American hero Luke Voit gets The Big Hit™ — I’m thinking a go-ahead two-run double in the sixth — and New York’s bullpen overwhelms the A’s. So there you have it, folks. No reason to watch tonight now.

Matching up against A’s x-factor Stephen Piscotty

October 2, 2018 by Mike

By now, you should know the 2018 Athletics are not the 2017 Twins. The 2017 Twins were a pushover 85-win team that essentially backed into the second wild card spot because the rest of the American League was so bad. The 2018 Athletics won 97 games and, despite playing in the spacious Oakland Coliseum, they finished third in home runs (227) and fourth in runs (851) this season. They are scary.

Oakland’s offensive attack is led by 48-homer man Khris Davis, the all-around excellence of Matt Chapman, and the steadiness of Jed Lowrie. First baseman Matt Olson is exactly the kind of left-handed hitter who could pop a ball or two into the short porch in tomorrow night’s Wild Card Game if the Yankees are not careful. The A’s regular lineup is rather fearsome:

LF Nick Martini (129 wRC+)
3B Matt Chapman (137 wRC+)
2B Jed Lowrie (122 wRC+)
DH Khris Davis (135 wRC+)
1B Matt Olson (117 wRC+)
RF Stephen Piscotty (125 wRC+)
CF Ramon Laureano (129 wRC+)
SS Marcus Semien (95 wRC+)
C Jonathan Lucroy (70 wRC+)

Neither Martini (179 plate appearances) nor Laureano (176 plate appearances) have much playing time, but, in the playing time they do have, they’ve been very good. That was the A’s regular lineup down the stretch in September, and, if manager Bob Melvin sticks with it in the Wild Card Game, they’ll have seven hitters in the lineup with a 117 wRC+ or better. The Yankees will have eight (everyone but Gary Sanchez)! But six is scary.

Chapman is the A’s best all-around player and Davis led MLB in home runs this year. The Yankees will also focus heavily on Olson given his potential to pepper the short porch with fly balls. Right now though, Oakland’s most dangerous hitter might be Piscotty, who lurks in the No. 6 spot ready to ruin your day after getting through the 3-4-5 hitters. Consider the month of September real quick:

Chapman: .260/.315/.410 (100 wRC+)
Davis: .237/.317/.570 (133 wRC+)
Lowrie: .220/.327/.308 (83 wRC+)
Olson: .282/.396/.494 (149 wRC+)
Piscotty: .310/.394/.655 (182 wRC+)

Olson was great in September. Davis less so thanks mostly to his power. Chapman and Lowrie stumbled to the finish a bit. That doesn’t mean they won’t be dangerous in the Wild Card Game. It just means September wasn’t their best month. Piscotty though? He was a monster in September. A monster throughout the second half, really. His arrow is pointing up:

Piscotty is not an out-of-nowhere success story. While with the Cardinals he hit .305/.359/.494 (134 wRC+) in 2015 and .273/.343/.457 (116 wRC+) in 2016. He struggled last season, hitting .235/.342/.367 (91 wRC+) while dealing with a groin injury and also off-the-field family matters. Piscotty’s mother Gretchen battled Lou Gehrig’s disease and passed away earlier this year. I can’t even begin to imagine what that was like for Stephen and his family.

After a good but not great first half, Piscotty has really settled in with the Athletics in the second half, adding length to the lineup. He had 41 doubles and 27 home runs in 151 games this season. Nineteen of those doubles and 20 of those home runs came in his final 72 games. Piscotty played at a 40+ homer pace for basically half-a-season there. This dude is feelin’ it right now.

Here are two heat maps. On the left are Piscotty’s hard hit balls this season, specifically fly balls and line drives with a 95 mph exit velocity or better. On the right are his swings and misses.

Like most hitters, the down and away pitch is Piscotty’s kryptonite. He’s also not someone who can do damage in any quadrant of the strike zone. For Piscotty to really lay into one, it has to be thigh high and out over the plate, perhaps a little inside. That’s where he makes his best contact. You can kinda see how the red splotch of hard hit balls fits neatly around the swings and misses.

Relative to the rest of the league, Piscotty is a better than average hitter against both fastballs and breaking balls. Everyone hits fastballs better than breaking balls — the Yankees didn’t adopt their anti-fastball philosophy on a whim, you know — but Piscotty’s split is rather extreme.

Fastballs: .390 wOBA and .452 xwOBA (MLB averages: .344 wOBA and .360 xwOBA)
Breaking Balls: .288 wOBA and .298 xwOBA (MLB averages: .264 wOBA and .266 xwOBA)

Given the numbers and the heat maps, expect the Yankees to attack Piscotty with soft stuff down and away all night in the Wild Card Game. We know now that Luis Severino is starting tomorrow night. He can go after Piscotty with sliders down and away. David Robertson can curveball him into the ground as well. Here’s another thing though: Check out Piscotty’s swing-and-miss heat map against fastballs:

As productive as he’s been against fastballs this season — Piscotty had the tenth highest xwOBA against fastballs this year, sandwiched between Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt — you can elevate the fastball against Piscotty. The more velocity the better, obviously. That makes Severino a good matchup against Piscotty, in theory. Severino can elevate that upper-90s heater and also break off that nasty slider down and away.

Looking at the rest of the bullpen, Chad Green’s strength seems to make up well with Piscotty’s weakness. Green throws a ton of fastballs and most of them are up in the zone. It wouldn’t seem like Green vs. Piscotty is something the Yankees want given Piscotty’s propensity to annihilate fastballs, but, given how Green operates up in the zone, it could work out very well. He just has to execute, of course.

At the same time, Zach Britton might not be a good matchup against Piscotty at all. There’s the platoon advantage, for starters, but Britton also gets his outs by pounding the bottom of the zone with sinkers. It’s not a normal sinker. Britton has maybe the best sinker I’ve ever seen. But Piscotty can handle fastballs down and certainly fastballs out over the plate. A righty who can elevate the fastball is a better bet than a lefty who peppers the knees.

Piscotty has been the A’s most dangerous hitter the last few weeks and, ideally, the Yankees would attack him with breaking balls down and away. All hitters are susceptible to down-and-away breakers. Piscotty especially so. If that matchup isn’t there though, elevated fastballs are the way to go, in which case the fastball heavy Green may be the best option against the fastball crusher Piscotty, as weird as that sounds.

Luis Severino to start 2018 AL Wild Card Game

October 2, 2018 by Mike

It is official: Luis Severino will start the 2018 AL Wild Card Game tomorrow night. Aaron Boone made the announcement at this afternoon’s workout at Yankee Stadium. “I think he’s ready for this. Hopefully he can get us off to a good start tomorrow. When he’s pitching at his best, he’ll be the best pitcher on the field tomorrow,” said Boone.

Severino last pitched last Tuesday, so he’ll go into the Wild Card Game on seven days rest. He’s thrown two bullpens since then to prepare for tomorrow’s start. The Yankees skipped Severino’s start Sunday — he didn’t even throw a token tune-up inning or anything — which was a pretty good indication he would get the ball in the Wild Card Game.

“It means a lot that they trust me,” Severino said this afternoon. “I feel rested. I feel like I can do a good job … I just want to win. If I go four innings and the bullpen comes in and gets it done, (I don’t care). I just want to win and move on.”

Three weeks ago RAB readers picked Masahiro Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game, but that was three weeks ago. Things change. I felt the Yankees wanted to start Severino in the Wild Card Game all along, and, after closing out the regular season with two strong starts, he made it an easy call for the brain trust. The Yankees are going with their most talented pitcher.

Severino of course started the Wild Card Game last season, and it was a disaster. Three runs and one out. The 2018 Athletics are much better than the 2017 Twins, and the A’s did put a hurtin’ on Severino last month (six runs in 2.2 innings), but he is the Yankees’ best chance at a dominant bat-missing start. How long will his leash be? I guess we’ll find out.

The Yankees and Athletics do not have to submit their official Wild Card Game rosters until tomorrow morning. Here are some other notes from today’s workout:

Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and Lance Lynn will all be on the Wild Card Game roster, Boone announced. They’re going to carry ten pitchers. Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade will be on the roster as well. Wade will be the designated pinch-runner. Based on the math, it appears Greg Bird and Ronald Torreyes will not be on the Wild Card Game roster.
Stephen Tarpley is still with the Yankees — that’s not nothing, most September call-ups are sent home after the end of the regular season — and he told Lindsey Adler he does not expect to be on the Wild Card Game roster. He is likely to be on the ALDS roster should the Yankees advance, however. That makes sense. Matt Olson is the only LOOGY worthy hitter in the A’s lineup and he’d be lifted for pinch-hitter Mark Canha (152 wRC+ vs. LHP).
Sonny Gray is not on the Wild Card Game roster. “I’m just hanging out,” he told Susan Slusser. No surprise here. Gray pitched too poorly for too long to be on the roster. That said, he’ll remain with the Yankees in case an injury replacement is needed at some point this postseason.

Based on today’s information, it appears this will be the 25-man roster the Yankees take into the Wild Card Game. Again, the official roster does not have to be submitted until tomorrow morning.

Catchers (3)	Infielders (7)	Outfielders (5)	Starters (4)	Relievers (6)
Sanchez	Andujar	Gardner	Happ	Betances
Romine	Gregorius	Hicks	Lynn	Britton
Higashioka	Hechavarria	Judge	Severino	Chapman
	Torres	McCutchen	Tanaka	Green
	Voit	Stanton		Holder
	Wade			Robertson
	Walker

The Athletics have not yet announced their starting pitcher for tomorrow’s game — we should find that out later today, when they have their workout at Yankee Stadium — though all indications are they will bullpen the game. Liam Hendriks is the obvious candidate to be the opener.

Update: Hendriks is indeed starting (opening) for the Athletics tomorrow, the team announced. It’s likely to be a one inning and done appearance like pretty much all his starts down the stretch.

The A’s may bullpen game the Wild Card Game, and that just might work to the Yankees’ advantage

October 2, 2018 by Mike

This guy is a problem. (Stephen Lam/Getty)

Tomorrow night the Yankees and Athletics will play the win or go home AL Wild Card Game at Yankee Stadium. We’ve been through this twice already — the Yankees lost to the Astros in the 2015 Wild Card Game and beat the Twins in the 2017 Wild Card Game — but that doesn’t make it any easier. The prospect of a 100-win season being washed away in one game is scary.

With the game less than 36 hours away, we still don’t know who will start for either team. The Yankees have been mulling it over for weeks — my guess is it’ll be Luis Severino, but what do I know — and so have the Athletics, who have been hammered by rotation injuries and don’t have an obvious Wild Card Game starter. Because of that, the A’s are said to be ready to bullpen it.

“It’s something we’ve been tinkering with some and trying to take a look and seeing what the best fit is going forward,” said manager Bob Melvin to Susan Slusser over the weekend. “That’s why we’re trying to give everybody a little bit of experience with it. After doing this, it will weigh into our decision come Wednesday.”

The alternative to a bullpen game would be Mike Fiers, who lines up to start tomorrow. He’s had a good season overall (3.56 ERA and 4.75 FIP) but is the kind of soft-tossing fly ball guy who gives up a lot of home runs and isn’t a good fit for Yankee Stadium at all. Fiers gave up 32 homers in 172 regular season innings and, last time out, he allowed six runs in 3.1 innings.

Oakland could always surprise everyone and start Fiers with a short leash tomorrow. We’ll get a definitive answer to both team’s pitching plans later today during the workout at Yankee Stadium, but, for now, the most likely scenario seems to be a straight bullpen game with a parade of one and two-inning relievers. So, with that in mind, let’s break down the A’s bullpen and figure out who fits where.

The Opener: Liam Hendriks

The Athletics have dabbled with an opener in recent weeks and Hendriks has gotten the call more often than anyone else. It’s not even close, really. Hendriks has made eight starts in recent weeks. Lou Trivino is the only other reliever to start as an opener. He’s made one start. If the A’s do go with an opener, all indications are it’ll be Hendriks.

“I think there’s definitely going to be a lot more scrutiny on it,” said Hendriks to Slusser when asked about the possibility of starting a postseason game. “If doesn’t work, that will be the reason, and if it does work, that will be the reason as well. Everything is going to be amplified.”

In his eight starts (opens?), Hendriks has allowed two runs in 8.2 innings with a .224 wOBA against. He tossed a scoreless first inning in his first start, they sent him out for a second inning, he allowed two runs, and that was it. It’s been one and done since then. If he starts tomorrow, I imagine Hendriks will be one inning and done again.

Hendriks is a mid-90s fastball/slider guy who has weirdly been better against lefties (.296 wOBA) than righties (.360 wOBA) not only this season, but the last few seasons as well. The split wasn’t always this drastic, but he has a clear reverse split. Huh. Maybe that makes the Andrew McCutchen-Aaron Judge one-two punch a good matchup against Hendriks?

The Closer: Blake Treinen

Treinen is absolutely filthy. He’s one of those guys who makes you wonder how anyone ever gets a hit. It’s an upper-90s sinker with a wipeout slider and a little cutter that chews up lefties. Look at this:

Disgusting. Treinen was an All-Star this year and he threw 80.1 innings with a 0.78 ERA (1.82 FIP) with 31.8% strikeouts and 51.9% grounders on the season overall. He doesn’t walk anyone either. Treinen had 6.7% walk rate this season. Goodness.

The key number there: 80.1 innings. Treinen threw 80.1 innings in 68 appearances this year. Ten times he threw two full innings this season, including one three-inning appearance. On 19 occasions Treinen recorded at least four outs. Only 20 relievers had more appearances of four or more outs this season and three of them were Rays’ long men who followed an opener, so it’s really only 17 relievers.

Point is, the Yankees are likely looking at a seven-inning game tomorrow night. Treinen has not pitched since Saturday, so he’ll go into the Wild Card Game with three days rest. I have to think Melvin and the A’s are planning on a two-inning save. If not planning on it then at least considering it. Treinen is out of this world good. If the Yankees are trailing after seven innings, they’re in serious trouble.

The Setup Man: Jeurys Familia

Familia is a potential crack in the dam. As good as he was overall this year — Familia threw 72 innings with a 3.13 ERA (2.65 FIP) and 27.5% strikeouts in 2018 — Familia has struggled lately, allowing six runs in his last 8.2 innings and 12 runs in his last 21.2 innings. He loaded the bases with no outs in a game against the Yankees last month and walked in the tying run.

Those walks have been a problem lately. Familiar has walked 12 batters in his last 21.2 innings, and, when he walks guys, he tends to walk then in bunches. He issued multiple walks in three of his last eleven appearances after issuing multiple walks in one of his first 59 appearances. A graph:

Not many pitches in the zone these days. Familia throws an upper-90s sinker that moves all over the place as well as a slider and a splitter, and he’s had some control problems recently. Not 2017 Dellin Betances control problems, but control problems. Once he enters the game, we should be able to tell pretty quickly whether he’s locked in or not. And if he’s not, Familia will absolutely walk himself in trouble. That’s something that should be on the Yankees’ radar.

Also, for what it’s worth, Familia has a penchant for back-breaking home runs in the postseason. He allowed a game-tying solo home run to Alex Gordon in the ninth inning of Game One of the 2015 World Series, and the game-winning three-run home run to Conor Gillaspie in the ninth inning of the 2016 Wild Card Game. If you’re a believer in “this guy can’t perform in the postseason,” that should make you feel better. The walks are the big thing to me.

The Fireman: Shawn Kelley

The A’s acquired Kelley from the Nationals in an August trade — remember when he was designated for assignment for being “unprofessional?” — and, in his 19 appearances with Oakland, he entered in the middle of an inning with men on base eight times. He’s the fireman. He inherited 19 runners in those eight appearances and three scored.

We all remember Kelley from his time with the Yankees, right? He’s a fastball/slider pitcher (it’s basically a 50/50 split) who struck out 26.3% of batters faced this season, including 27.0% of right-handed batters for his career. The downside here? Lots of fly balls (30.2% grounders) and lots of homers (1.29 HR/9). Bring him in with men on base and you run the risk of a multi-run home run, especially at Yankee Stadium. That’s the A’s problem.

As always, the preference is letting the reliever start an inning fresh. But, if the Athletics run into some trouble and need someone to pitch them out of a jam, especially with right-handed hitters do up, Kelley figures to be the guy Melvin calls on. He’s going to get swings and misses. Always has. But he’ll also let hitters elevate the ball. Kelley is one of those “he’ll make mistakes, so don’t miss it” guys.

The Wild Card: Fernando Rodney

In all seriousness, Rodney deserves major props for slinging mid-90s fastballs and posting a 3.36 ERA (4.03 FIP) in 64.1 innings at age 41. May all your favorite players have that kind of longevity.

Anyway, Rodney is very much a wild card, and I mean that with no pun intended. He could come in and strike out the side or he could come in, walk two batters, hit another, and give up four runs. We’ve seen him give up some pretty big home runs to the Yankees this year. Rodney gave up the walk-off home run to Gary Sanchez when he was with the Twins and Luke Voit hit a go-ahead home run against him in Oakland last month.

Melvin has used Rodney as sort of his jack of all trades reliever. Treinen is the closer and Familia is the main setup guy. Rodney has pitched the seventh inning mostly, and also the eighth when Familia or Treinen weren’t available. I’m not sure how much Melvin really trusts him. Enough to use him in a winner-take-all game? When the A’s were trying to chase down the Astros in the AL West, Rodney didn’t see many close games.

I don’t know where Rodney fits in the pecking order tomorrow. Melvin may try to avoid him all together or he may trust him enough to use him in a one-run game in the sixth or seventh inning. No matter when he pitches, Rodney’s effectiveness kinda depends on which side of the bed he wakes up on. He’s very unpredictable and a patient team like the Yankees can take advantage of his wildness.

The Struggling Middle Man: Lou Trivino

My favorite thing about Lou Trivino is that he looks exactly like I’d expect a guy named like Lou Trivino to look. To wit:

A Lou Trivino if I ever saw one.

Well, anyway, Trivino served as Treinen’s primary setup man in the first half before crashing hard in the second half. It’s a good thing the A’s went out and got Familia and Rodney when they did because:

Trivino in first half: 1.22 ERA (3.07 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts in 44.1 innings
Trivino in second half: 5.46 ERA (4.61 FIP) with 25.0% strikeouts in 29.2 innings

Opponents have hit .295/.382/.513 against Trivino in his last 24 games and 19.2 innings — for reference, that is more or less 2018 Paul Goldschmidt (.290/.389/.533) — and he finished the regular season having allowed seven runs in his final four appearances and 2.2 innings. Yikes.

For all intents and purposes, Trivino is the A’s version of 2017 Dellin Betances. Their struggles are different — Betances walked everyone last year while Trivino is simply getting hit hard this year — but the idea is the same. They were a trusted setup man pretty much all year who has become persona non grata come postseason time. Emergencies only.

Trivino is a four-seamer/two-seamer/cutter guy whose location has suffered and may’ve become a little too predictable this year. His recent ineffectiveness has really put some pressure on Familia and Rodney (and Kelley). The whole idea was to build a four-headed bullpen monster at the end of games. Trivino hasn’t held up his end of the bargain.

Melvin has spent the last few weeks trying to get Trivino right — the A’s were sitting comfortably in postseason position and they let him work through things — and it hasn’t really happened. The postseason is not the time to let a player try to right the ship. If they go with a bullpen game, Trivino may be used out of necessity. He is definitely a weak link right now. There is damage potential here.

The LOOGY: Ryan Buchter

Left-on-left specialists are a dying breed but Buchter is one of the few true matchup guys remaining. Case in point: He threw 39.1 innings in 54 appearances this season. That’s a LOOGYs workload. Buchter held lefties to a .165/.231/.265 (.222 wOBA) batting line with 31.5% strikeouts this year. Righties? They hit .286/.366/.476 (.360 wOBA) with 16.9% strikeouts against him.

Buchter will be on the Wild Card Game roster for one reason and one reason only: Didi Gregorius. I suppose he could turn Aaron Hicks around to his weaker side of the plate (weaker side this year, anyway), but it seems more likely Buchter and his fastball/curveball combo will be used against Gregorius. That’s the best left-on-left matchup for the Athletics now that Brett Gardner and Greg Bird have given way to McCutchen and Voit, respectively.

If there’s one thing to like about the Buchter-Gregorius matchup, it is the potential for a fly ball. Buchter has a 25.2% ground ball rate this year. It’s a slightly better 30.2% ground ball rate against lefties. Gregorius, over the last three seasons, has a 39.6% ground ball rate and a 36.8% pull rate against southpaws. He knows how to hit the ball toward the short porch. Buchter is very fly ball prone and that might play right to Didi’s strength.

The Secret Weapon: J.B. Wendelken

Wendelken is the A’s version of Stephen Tarpley. He’s a righty, not a lefty, but he pitched his way into postseason roster consideration with a strong September. It’s not even a consideration. Slusser says Wendelken’s on the roster. He allowed one run in 16.2 innings this year, including eight scoreless innings in September.

The good news: Wendelken is not a big strikeout pitcher (22.6%). The bad news: Wendelken gets a lot of weak fly balls and popups. Those frustrate me to no end. He’s a mid-90 fastball/curveball/changeup guy, so this isn’t a full blown Marco Estrada “OMG why aren’t they hitting these 86 mph fastballs???” profile, but it’s the same idea. He leaves hitters flummoxed.

With Trivino struggling and Rodney so unpredictable, I suspect Wendelken will be counted on quite a bit in the Wild Card Game. He might be the first guy out of the bullpen following the opener and he might be asked to throw two innings, possibly even three if his pitch count is low.

No one on the Yankees has faced Wendelken. The entire roster will be going in blind. Not great! I can hear Brian Johnson on the TBS broadcast now. “And what a job by J.B. Wendelken to shut the Yankees down here. He wasn’t on the radar at all before coming out of nowhere in September.” I don’t like it. The potential to get Wendelkened is too high for my liking.

With any luck, Wendelken’s general lack of whiffs and 10.0% minor league walk rate will manifest themselves at the wrong time against the wrong lineup in the wrong ballpark. The Yankees’ lineup can be unforgiving. They’ve never seen Wendelken before, but Wendelken’s never seen the Yankees or Yankee Stadium in the postseason. It can be intimidating.

The Multi-Inning Guy: Yusmeiro Petit

Petit does it all, man. He can throw two or three innings at a time or face one batter in a matchup spot. He’s sorta like 2009 Alfredo Aceves. Aceves could do whatever. Petit has a 3.00 ERA (3.93 FIP) with 20.7% strikeouts and the kind of ground ball (35.8%) and home run (1.26 HR/9) rates that don’t normally play well in Yankee Stadium. He is in Melvin’s Circle of Trust™ though, and if the A’s bullpen the Wild Card Game, they’ll need Petit at some point.

This is my guess — again, this is just a guess — at Melvin’s ideal inning-by-inning pitching plan for tomorrow’s Wild Card Game:

1st inning: Hendriks
2nd inning: Wendelken
3rd inning: Wendelken
4th inning: Petit
5th inning: Petit with Kelley and Buchter as necessary
6th inning: Trivino or Rodney with Kelley and Buchter as necessary
7th inning: Familia
8th inning: Familia and Treinen
9th inning: Treinen

That is potentially nine pitchers for nine innings. The Athletics are expected to carry eleven pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster — Jane Lee says they’ll have a starter for extra innings and low-leverage righty Emilio Pagan on the roster — and, clearly, those middle innings are crucial. Familia has been shaky lately. I still don’t want the A’s handing him and Treinen a lead.

The common thread here is fly balls. Fly balls and home runs. Even with Treinen’s hellacious sinker and Familia’s merely very good sinker, Oakland’s bullpen posted the second lowest ground ball rate (40.6%) in baseball and a 1.05 HR/9 rate that would’ve been much higher in a different home ballpark. Kelley, Buchter, and Petit will all give up fly balls and Wendelken has done the same in his brief MLB career.

For the Yankees, there is undoubtedly a disadvantage to never seeing one pitcher multiple times in a game. That’s the entire point of the bullpenning/opener strategy. Limit the number of times the hitter sees a pitcher. The Yankees have seen their fair share of bullpen games this season thanks to the Rays, and we know they can be annoyingly effective. The A’s are doing it out of necessity.

The downside of a bullpen game is that you’re using so many relievers, and the more relievers you use, the more likely it is you run into someone who just doesn’t have it that day. The Yankees effectively bullpenned the Wild Card Game last year, but they used four relievers in 8.2 innings. Using seven or eight relievers to cover nine innings is a different animal. It’s doable. For sure. The A’s wouldn’t do this if they were confident in any of their starters though. This is the best of several not great options.

Athletics Wild Card bullpen primer: Finding cracks between Fiers and Treinen

September 28, 2018 by Steven Tydings

In five days time, the Athletics will come to Yankee Stadium for the Wild Card Game, armed with a cadre of relievers.

For sure, Oakland is defined by its lineup, which posted the second-best wRC+ in baseball and slugged .440 despite the spacious confines of the Coliseum. But the team didn’t win 96+ games just off its offense.

The team’s rotation, despite containing plenty of talent, has been ravaged by injuries and by all measures is mediocre. There’s a reason they’ve adopted an opener/bullpenning strategy to take up the back-end of their rotation in the last month.

Instead of winning with a strong rotation, the Athletics have been decidedly modern and turned to a strong bullpen. One has to figure Bob Melvin will follow that formula in the Wild Card Game, likely following a short stint from Mike Fiers with a series of their top relievers.

So where can the Yankees find cracks if they don’t get to the homer-prone Fiers?

Unlike last season with the Twins, the Athletics do have a pitcher to fear and that is All-Star closer Blake Treinen. Treinen has been good enough that he should earn some down-ballot Cy Young consideration. At age 30, the right-hander has finally figured out how to dominate with his electric upper-90s sinker.

Considering his 0.79 ERA (a 532 ERA+, not a typo), 0.832 WHIP and ability to go multiple innings, the Yankees basically need to get to the seventh inning with a lead or else Treinen likely finishes their season off. Treinen blew his last save, but that came on a pair of seeing-eye singles and a key error.

It would be one thing if the bullpen were just Treinen. However, the A’s have some standout rookies, a trio of former closers and a sprinkle of veterans in front of him, although each has their flaws.

Even better than Treinen in the first half was Lou Trivino, but the 26-year-old rookie has come crashing down to earth in the second half to the tune of a 5.86 ERA and a .280/.364/.449 line against him. The right-hander has been dealing with a neck issue to boot, but he still can fire the ball in the upper-90s easily.

Next up is Fernando Rodney. All I need to say is he’s Fernando Rodney. He walks way too many batters and the Yankees seem to own him. Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez certainly have.

For some reason, Rodney continues to get almost exclusively higher leverage innings. Someone, please explain this to me. Or don’t, and just make sure it happens on Oct. 3.

Another trade deadline acquisition was Jeurys Familia. A better and younger arm than Rodney to be sure, but he hasn’t been quite as sharp in Oakland compared to his Mets days. His peripherals have been better despite a rising walk rate. Like Rodney, the Yankees got to him in their one victory during their Labor Day series.

The other former closer is former Yankee Shawn Kelley, who’s been a mess in high leverage spots this year between the Nationals and Athletics. That likely has him lower on the totem pole for Wednesday’s clash.

If you take out Kelley, those are the tippy-top arms for the Athletics. But Melvin s plenty of tricks (or relievers) up his sleeve. I’ll break them down quickly since there’s way too many to go into detail.

Ryan Buchter is the matchup lefty. If Didi Gregorius is healthy, he’s the matchup for Buchter. Otherwise, he’ll be waiting for Neil Walker, Brett Gardner or Greg Bird to enter the game. Maybe he gets an inning against righties, but this seems unnecessary with Oakland’s depth.
Yusmeiro Petit is a jack-of-all-trades. He can take long relief, but he’s pitched in one inning bursts recently, likely due to the increased depth in the pen.
Trevor Cahill and Edwin Jackson are each part of the rotation, yet each has some experience in the bullpen and could take up a long relief or emergency role in the Wild Card Game. The Yankees historically have hit both pitchers extremely well, but neither has seen the Yankees often the last few years.
Along those lines is Daniel Mengden. He’s primarily pitched behind an opener in recent weeks, but he had the Bombers’ number on Sept. 4, carrying a no-hitter into the middle innings. Don’t be shocked if he’s on the Wild Card Game roster, but it’s tough to see him slotting into middle relief with the Athletics clinging to a lead.
The Athletics could also utilize the opener with Liam Hendriks. The Australian right-hander has allowed a run in just one of seven “starts” this season and would work alongside Oakland’s right-handed options to counter the Yankees’ lineup.
Lastly, rookie J.B. Wendelken has allowed one run over 15 2/3 innings this year and his fastball-curve combination could have him ticketed for a postseason roster spot. Still, he hasn’t been trusted with a late-inning lead.

There are a few other arms that the A’s could turn to, but expect the formula to be Fiers and Treinen with some combination of Familia, Rodney, Trivino and Buchter in between. Oakland is able to meet the Yankees’ righty bats with plenty of right-handed power in the their bullpen with Buchter to seek out other matchups. If I had to put anyone else in there, Petit would get an inning if Fiers or whichever starter is out quickly, but he might not have the Proven Closer™ feel to him that some of the others have.

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

September 27, 2018 by Mike

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

The starting pitcher.
An emergency guy for extra innings.
An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Starters	Relievers
Sanchez	Andujar	Gardner	Happ	Betances
Romine	Bird	Judge	Severino	Britton
	Hechavarria	McCutchen	Tanaka	Chapman
	Torres	Stanton		Green
	Voit	Hicks/Wade		Holder
	Walker			Robertson
	Didi/Toe			Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

It’s official: Yankees will face the A’s in the Wild Card Game

September 26, 2018 by Mike

What has been a foregone conclusion for weeks is now official: The Yankees will face the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday, October 3rd. The game will likely be played at Yankee Stadium, though that is not yet official.

Tuesday night the Astros beat the Blue Jays and the Mariners walked off with a win over the Athletics, clinching the AL West title for Houston. Mariners utility guy Chris Herrmann clubbed a pinch-hit walk-off homer to give the Astros the AL West crown.

The Red Sox have already clinched the AL East — and the best record in baseball, at that — and the Indians have already clinched the AL Central. The entire American League postseason field is now set. Here’s the playoff picture:

Wild Card Game: Yankees vs. Athletics
ALDS: Wild Card Game winner at Red Sox
ALDS: Indians at Astros

The only thing still up for grabs is homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game. The Yanks have a three-game lead in the loss column for the top wildcard spot that is effectively a four-game lead because they hold the tiebreaker. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two with five games to play.

The Yankees and Athletics split their season series 3-3 this year. The Yankees won two of three in New York in May and the A’s won two of three in Oakland three weeks ago. The A’s visited the Yankees when the Yankees were in the middle of their best stretch of the season, and vice versa. Go figure.

These two franchises do have some postseason history, though none of it is recent. They last met back in the 2001 ALDS. That was the Derek Jeter flip play series. The Yankees and A’s also met in the 1981 ALCS and the 2000 ALDS. The Yankees have won all three head-to-head series.