Jeff Samardzija Archives - Page 3 of 3

Mailbag: Prospects, All-Stars, Castro, Samardzija

April 25, 2014 by Mike 24 Comments

Got a dozen questions for you this week, including a bunch about prospects. We’re starting to get an overwhelming amount of questions each week — I had over 50 marked for consideration this week — and I’m trying to answer as many as I can each Friday. Don’t take it personally if yours is not included. Keep sending them in.

Aaron Judge and Michael O'Neill. (Moultrie News) — Aaron Judge and Michael O’Neill. O’Neill is 6-foot-1. (Moultrie News)

Brendan asks: If some of these prospects stay hot (Aaron Judge), when is the earliest we could expect a call up?

Judge is the one guy who I think will get moved up sooner rather than later. The Yankees said they started him with Low-A Charleston because he didn’t play at all after signing last year and they wanted to take it slow, but now that he’s showing no rust and is raking, a quick move up to High-A Tampa is in order. As for other everyone else, I think we’re still a good two months or so away. The season is young and most promotions don’t come until midseason, after each league’s All-Star Game.

Toki asks: Now that Dante Bichette Jr. is hitting (SSS), who has the higher ceiling among Bichette and Eric Jagielo?

Jagielo, no doubt. It would still be Jagielo for me even if Bichette had hit well these last two years. I have less questions about Jagielo’s all-around offensive game as well as his defense. Maybe Bichette will have a higher offensive peak if it all works out, but I think Jagielo projects to be the better all-around player and it really isn’t all that close. Bichette’s been great this year, but three weeks do not erase the last two years.

Upstate Yanks asks: When are we going to see Mark Montgomery come up? Could be a future late-inning guy no?

Probably in the second half and yes. I actually think I ranked him too high in my Preseason Top 30 — Danny Burawa jumped him on the depth chart before getting hurt — and I’m not quite as bullish as I was last year at this time. The slider still misses bats though, and has long as that continues to happen, he’ll project to be a late-inning arm.

Glenn asks: I know he’s only been in the system a short time but it always seems like Caleb Smith is putting up nice numbers. Is there potential in him for the future?

Oh yes, absolutely. Smith might be the best sleeper in the organization right now. The Yankees grabbed him out of Sam Houston State with their 14th round pick last year, gave him $100k, and he has a 1.78 ERA (~2.24 FIP) with a 26.7% strikeout rate in 65.2 pro innings. That was before yesterday’s 13-strikeout performance. The walks are a bit high (9.2%) but Smith is a big lefty (listed at 6-foot-3 and 200 lbs.) with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and two legit offspeed pitches (low-80s slider and changeup). Is he the next Randy Johnson? No, but there’s legit MLB potential there.

Dan asks: Peter O’Brien is hitting the cover off the ball, what are the chances he gets called up to AA this year? Since he seems to be completely blocked at C, do you see the Yankees moving his position? Same questions for Gary Sanchez: if his bat can make an impact in the next couple of years, is there any chance they try him out at a different position, because he’s blocked by McCann? Do you see him being promoted to AAA this year?

O'Brien. (Presswire) — O’Brien. (Presswire)

O’Brien to Double-A will definitely happen at some point. That will be one of the midseason promotions I mentioned earlier. He’ll eventually move off catcher because he’s a pretty bad catcher, not because he’s blocked. O’Brien worked out at third base last year but that didn’t work. They’re giving right field a try early this year. I assume first base is next. As for Gary Sanchez, he should stay behind the plate as long as possible regardless of Brian McCann and whoever else is ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s way more valuable there. Let him develop behind the plate and worry about where he fits into the MLB roster when the time comes. If nothing else, staying behind the plate makes him more attractive to other teams in trades. As for the promotion to Triple-A Scranton, yeah I think that will happen later this summer.

Jack asks: Among the following 4: a) would you rank the most likely (if any) to succeed as a major league regular, and b) has the ability to stick at 3B at the majors: Jagielo, DBJ, Andujar, Austin.

To answer the first question, I’d rank them Jagielo, Tyler Austin, Miguel Andujar, and Bichette. I had Austin over Jagielo in my Preseason Top 30 but they were right next too each other (almost interchangeable) and Austin has dealt with some injury problems in recent weeks. As for sticking at third base, I’d have them Jagielo, Andujar, Austin, and Bichette. I’m not married to the order of the last two and I wouldn’t argue Bichette over Austin. Jagielo and Andujar are legit third baseman. The other guys are maybes at the position who are better off elsewhere.

Paul asks: Too early, I know, but so far the only Yankees worthy of All-Star berths are Masahiro Tanaka and maybe Jacoby Ellsbury, right? Nobody else is standing out to me. Who do you think the fans will vote for? Derek Jeter seems like a good shot considering he’s Jeter and has avoided falling on his face. Anyone else?

I think Jeter will win the fan vote by a mile at shortstop. Who will take votes from him? Jose Reyes? That’s the only other reasonable candidate and he’s hurt all the time. The current AL shortstop landscape is a wasteland. Jeter has hit well this year and I think he’ll go to the All-Star Game. Tanaka and Ellsbury are both worthy right now — Ellsbury’s not a maybe for me, he’s been too good to be on the bubble — and I think Carlos Beltran will get some consideration, though there are always a ton of qualified outfielders. McCann also has a shot, especially if his recent offensive surge is a sign he’s getting back to being himself at the plate. The AL catching crop is weak, though Jason Castro and Matt Wieters are legitimate alternatives.

Matt asks: Could the Yankees look to make a deal with the Cubs for Starlin Castro, being that he had sort of a rocky season last year with the organization, and the presence of their prospect Javier Baez (though he is struggling now) seemingly on the way? Obviously depending on how he performs, what do you think it would take to get a deal done for Castro at the end of the season?

Yes, I think so. Obviously it depends how he rebounds from that disaster last year. Castro isn’t a shortstop — I don’t know what he is, really. Maybe a second baseman? — and he’s a hacker at the plate, but he has some power and speed. He also just turned 24, so he’s still very young with the potential for improvement. The contract is scary if you don’t think he’ll rebound (owed $49M through 2019), but that’s the Cubs’ problem. I’m interested but I want to see what happens this year. There haven’t been many players like Castro traded over the years, so figuring out what it would take to get him is mighty tough. How do you value him? As a future star or just an okay infielder?

New Guy asks: Now that Ivan Nova is out for a while, what would it take to make Jeff Samardzija a Yankee? I’ve always liked him and he is always liked to trade rumors. Are you interested?

I was about a year ago, but Samardzija didn’t improve much (if at all) last season and this year is more of the same. His strikeout rate this year is actually way, way down, but it is still very early. Samardzija strikes me as a classic “whole is less than the sum of the parts” guy, like Edwin Jackson and A.J. Burnett. The stuff says he should be an ace and you keep waiting for him to turn into an ace, but he leaves you waiting and waiting. All while he’ll show enough flashes to keep you interested. Samardzija is affordable ($5.345M in 2014, free agent after 2015) and he’s a fine mid-rotation horse, but he’s already 29 and I’m not sure how much longer you can wait for him to live up to the potential. The Cubs are marketing him as an ace and he just isn’t that.

Josh asks: You just did a piece of the Yanks trying to make a move for Cliff Lee. What do you think about Kyle Kendrick. Younger, and would come a lot cheaper. Hasn’t had a great start, but maybe they could buy low.

I’m not a fan of Kendrick. He’s a solid back of the rotation type who limits walks and gets grounders, but he is surprisingly expensive ($7.675M this year) and I’m not sure an upper-80s sinker/low-80s changeup righty is someone I trust in the AL East. I’d rather give David Phelps a try before giving up prospects for Kendrick. Lee is (still) an elite pitcher and I’m not a fan of cutting corners when it comes to those guys. Play the price and add a true difference maker. No one gets upset over traded prospects in October.

Joe asks: Watching the Yankees so far this season, they are definitely going 1st to 3rd and 2nd to home A LOT more than previous years. Was wondering if you could do a comparison between this year and previous years.

Sure can. These numbers do not include last night’s game (couldn’t wait around for Baseball Reference to update overnight), but here are the team’s first-to-third numbers (small sample size, yadda yadda yadda):

	1st to 3rd Opps.	1st to 3rds	1st to 3rd %	Overall XB%
2014	40	16	40%	48%
2013	275	65	24%	35%
2012	280	78	28%	37%
2011	287	71	25%	38%
2010	328	87	27%	38%

Joe is correct, the Yankees have absolutely been going first-to-third more often this season. They’ve been taking the extra-base in general — score from second on a single, score from first on a double, etc. — more often as well. The league average for taking the extra-base is around 40% and the Yankees were a bit below that the last few years. This year they are well above-average.

The reason for the improvement is pretty obvious. Ellsbury, Yangervis Solarte, Kelly Johnson, and Brian Roberts are quicker than the guys they replaced, and both Jeter and Beltran are very smart base-runners who make up for their lack of speed with instincts. I think their first-to-third and overall extra-base rate will come down a bit as the season progresses just because guys will start to get tired and stuff like that, but they should still be quite a bit better than the last few years. Between all the defensive shifts and better base-running, this is a new breed of Yankees baseball.

2013 Winter Meetings Day One Open Thread

December 9, 2013 by Mike 99 Comments

It’s hard to believe that after everything that happened last week, today is the first day of the Winter Meetings in Orlando. These next three days — the fourth day of the Winter Meetings is always slow because teams head home around noon-ish — might be a little slower than usual only because some of the very top free agents are always off the board. I still expect this week to be pretty busy, with lots of rumors and trades and signings with whatnot.

Robinson Cano is leaving for the Mariners and Curtis Granderson is going across town to the Mets, but the Yankees have already inked Jacoby Ellsbury (seven years, $153M), Brian McCann (five years, $85M), Carlos Beltran (three years, $45M), Hiroki Kuroda (one year, $16M), and Kelly Johnson (one year, $3M). They still need another infielder to help replace Cano as well as another starting pitcher — Yu Darvish was posted during the 2011 Winter Meetings, so hopefully we get some clarification about Masahiro Tanaka this week — and some bullpen help. General depth is always something to monitor as well.

Brian Cashman is not expected to arrive in Orlando until this afternoon according to Andy McCullough, but that’s pretty typical. A few clubs and executives are already there but most trickle in throughout Monday. We’re going to keep track of any Yankees-related news right here throughout the day, so make sure you check back often. All of the timestamps are ET.

10:58pm: The Yankees have not changed their stance on Gardner. They will listen to offers but aren’t overly motivated to trade him. [Jack Curry]
7:47pm: The asking price for Gardner is “through (the) roof” and the Giants don’t have much interest in Ichiro Suzuki. Not surprised on either count. [John Shea]
6:58pm: The Giants are intrigued by Gardner. One person involved in talks called a trade “not likely, but not impossible.” [Sherman]
6:38pm: The most likely return for Gardner would be a number four starter, according to rival executives. A number three would be a strong return. Just keep him in that case. [McCullough]
5:05pm: The Yankees are looking for relievers and they have stayed in contact with Boone Logan. He had a bone spur removed from his elbow after the season and is expected to start throwing this month. [McCullough]
5:01pm: Cuban shortstop Aledmys Diaz will be eligible to sign on February 19th after being suspended for falsifying his age. The Yankees had a “large presence” at the 23-year-old’s recent showcase events in Mexico. Some teams like him more as a second baseman. [Jeff Passan]
11:10am: The Yankees have not expressed interest in Johan Santana. He’s coming off his second torn shoulder capsule and the first is usually the kiss of death. [McCullough]
11:03am: Thinking about Roy Halladay? Forget it. He’s retiring. Halladay will sign a one-day contract with the Blue Jays and make the official announcement later today. [Jon Heyman]
The Yankees are one of the teams with interest in trading for Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija. I wrote about him around the trade deadline. [Bruce Levine]
9:00am: “That’s the last thing I’m worried about,” said Cashman when asked about acquiring a closer. He acknowledged they’re seeking another starter and bullpen help in general. “Listen, we have enough voids that you don’t have to prioritize any of it. You hope to run into something sooner than later that makes you better.” [Dan Martin]
The Yankees did look into a reunion with Raul Ibanez but he isn’t much of a fit now. The outfield is crowded and there’s no room for another DH-type. Ibanez is expected to sign this week. [Joel Sherman]
The Yankees still have interest in Omar Infante as a Cano replacement. They are not talking to Mark Ellis, however. [Ken Rosenthal]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Scouting The Trade Market: Jeff Samardzija

July 29, 2013 by Mike 87 Comments

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Even after acquiring Alfonso Soriano from the Cubs and getting Derek Jeter back from the DL, the Yankees figure to focus primarily on adding offense in advance of Wednesday’s trade deadline. They still need help at third base and a platoon partner for Lyle Overbay, plus an upgrade behind the plate is in order as well. The lineup has improved quite a bit over the last week, but there is still more work to be done.

That said, starting pitching has been an issue of late as well. The team’s starters have allowed at least four runs ten times in 24 games this month, including seven times in the last 14 games. CC Sabathia has been bad for two months and a disaster of late, Andy Pettitte has struggled since coming off the DL, and Phil Hughes continues to be up and (mostly) down. Hiroki Kuroda is as good as it gets and Ivan Nova has been excellent of late, but having two reliable starting pitchers is no way to go through life.

I wrote about the idea of adding a starting pitcher at the trade deadline not too long ago, and remember, the Yankees will need an arm or three for next year as well. At the moment, the projected rotation for 2014 is Sabathia, Nova, David Phelps, Adam Warren, and Michael Pineda, and that’s unlikely to take them anywhere meaningful. Adding a starter who can help them both down the stretch this year as well as next season and beyond sure seems like something worth exploring.

On Saturday, Ken Rosenthal reported the Cubs are listened to offers for right-hander Jeff Samardzija in advance of the non-waiver deadline. The 28-year-old former Notre Dame star (as a wide receiver) has found a home in Chicago’s rotation these last two years, but the rebuilding Cubbies are willing to turn him into prospects if the right deal comes along — the “asking price (is) high, as expected,” hears Rosenthal. Does the one they affectionately call Shark make sense for the Yankees? Let’s break it down.

The Pros

After going up and down and working primarily out of the bullpen earlier in his career, Samardzija has pitched to a 3.87 ERA and 3.60 FIP as a starter the last two years. That includes a 3.94 ERA and 3.66 FIP in 21 starts this season. He’s averaged a solid 6.1 innings per start.
Samardzija’s strikeout rate as a starter is excellent. He’s at 9.21 K/9 and 24.5 K% since the start of 2012 (9.13 K/9 and 24.0 K% this year), including a very good 22.9 K% against non-pitchers. Samardzija’s 24.1% (!) swing-and-miss rate since last season is the ninth best among qualified starters, just behind Clayton Kershaw (24.2%).
In addition to the strikeouts, his ground ball rate is trending upward. Samardzija has a very good 48.1% grounder rate this year, up from 44.6% last year and 41.0% the year before. (He was in the bullpen in 2011). Strikeouts and grounders are a great combination.
As you probably guessed, Samardzija has nasty, nasty stuff. Among qualified starters, both his two-seamer (94.7 mph) and four-seamer (95.0 mph) have the third highest average velocity since the start of last year (only Stephen Strasburg and David Price are better), and he holds it keep into games. He also throws a low-90s cutter, a mid-80s splitter, and a low-to-mid-80s slider. The slider is his top secondary pitch.
Being a star football player for the Irish and an Opening Day starter for the Cubs are not exactly low-profile experiences. Samardzija knows all about being the center of attention and dealing with the media and all that.
Samardzija will earn $2.64M this year and is under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in both 2014 and 2015. He’ll be relatively cheap these next two years and the team will have the flexibility to non-tender him if push comes to shove.

The Cons

Although his walk rate these last two years is solid (3.12 BB/9 and 8.3 BB%), Samardzija went from a 2.89 BB/9 and 7.8 BB% last year to a 3.42 BB/9 and 9.0 BB% this year. He is prone to those ugly four and five-walk starts from time to time.
Samardzija is kinda homer prone. Since moving into the rotation last year, he has a 1.01 HR/9 and 12.7% HR/FB rate. He also has a bit of a platoon split, holding righties to a .291 wOBA (3.04 FIP) while lefties have put up a .307 wOBA (3.80 FIP). Not a huge difference, at least in terms of end results, but a difference nonetheless.
His track record is very limited even though he’s spent parts of six years in the show. Samardzija has yet to crack 175 innings in the season (only two seasons with more than 100 innings) and who knows how (or if) he’ll hold up for 200+ innings annually with his more-than-moderate-effort delivery. He’ll also turn 29 next January, so he’s young but not a spring chicken. Thirty is right around the corner.
Samardzija is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without first passing through waivers. Not a huge deal at this point, but it does limit flexibility if things go wrong.

The Yankees love physically big pitchers, and Samardzija is listed at 6-foot-5 and 225 lbs. on the Cubs’ official site. It’s also worth noting that pitching coach Larry Rothschild knows the right-hander from his time with the Cubs, though the fact that Samardzija broke out after Rothschild left town might be an indication the two didn’t work well together. Samardzija was also David Phelps’ teammate for a year at Notre Dame. The Yankees do have some inside info at their disposal.

Given their lack of upper level pitching prospects and an utter inability to develop high-end starters, trading for Samardzija might be the best chance for the Yankees to add an impact starter to their rotation at a reasonable financial price. It’ll cost more than a few quality prospects to acquire him, but his unique career path means there aren’t many comparable trades we can reference. Two and a half years of an above-average but not elite starter closing in on 30 with only one full year in the rotation to his credit? Don’t see many deals involving those guys.

Samardzija has not made much, if any, improvement from 2012 to 2013 outside of his ground ball rate. He’s really good right now, but I don’t think it’s safe assumption that he’ll continue to improve as he gains more experience just because he was awesome stuff. And it is awesome — legit bat-missing power stuff that would play just fine in the rough and tough AL East. Samardzija might just be another A.J. Burnett, the guy who looks like he should be an ace but continues to fall short of that performance level. That’s not a bad thing, mind you. Burnett’s had a pretty damn good career.

Anyway, if I had a pitcher like Samardzija in this current market — it’s a seller’s market, prices are high — I’d want four young players back, at minimum. A top prospect, a second top-100 type of prospect, a third quality piece, and a fourth lower-level lottery ticket type. A bit more than the Cubs got for Matt Garza despite Samardzija’s lack of track record because of the two extra years of team control. Even if he “only” winds up as a good number three starter, the Yankees could definitely use a pitcher like a Samardzija, who at least offers a chance to blow up and become an ace.