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Stephen Strasburg’s extension and the Yankees

May 10, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg managed to agree to a contract extension in the middle of a start last night. While he was on the mound against the Tigers, news broke Strasburg and the Nats had a seven-year extension in place. The deal is worth $175M and includes opt-outs after the third and fourth years. The contract will be made official later today.

Massive contracts like this change the baseball landscape. Strasburg was on track to become a free agent after the season and pretty much every team with money to burn and a hole in their rotation was going to be interested. The Nationals opened their wallets and paid up. If nothing else, their fans now a least have some hope they will do the same with Bryce Harper in a few years. For now, here are some ways the Strasburg deal affects the Yankees.

Wow Does The Free Agent Pitching Class Stink

Strasburg was, by far, the best pitcher scheduled to become a free agent after the season. I wasn’t expecting the Yankees to make a run at him or any other big name free agent — that might not happen until they reset their luxury tax rate — but you can never truly rule this team out on free agents. What if they win 70 games and finish in last place? Would it surprise anyone if the Yankees respond by spending $400M in free agency? Nah.

The Yankees need pitching the same way every team needs pitching. With Strasburg off the board, here is a quick list of the best starters scheduled to become free agents after the season (full list):

Clay Buchholz
Andrew Cashner
Bartolo Colon
R.A. Dickey
Jeremy Hellickson
Rich Hill
Mat Latos

There are some options and opt-outs that can come into play (Gio Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Derek Holland, Edinson Volquez are the notables) but that’s the list. You really have to squint your eyes to find a difference maker in that group. I’m really surprised Strasburg and Scott Boras decided to forego free agent with that class. He might have gotten $200M on the open market.

The Yankees have quite a bit of money coming off the books after the season and spending on a free agent starter to beef up the rotation seemed possible. Maybe not a huge money deal, but a little something, you know? Now that Strasburg is off the board, there’s going to be much more competition for the mid-range arms. Someone’s going to end up betting a lot of money on Buchholz and Cashner not being enigmas going forward.

The Trade Market: As Buyers

Because the free agent pitching market looks so weak, expect the trade circuit to be busy. No team has too much pitching, but some have more pitching than others, and a few of those clubs figure to cash in an extra arm as a trade chip. The Dodgers, Mets, Nationals, Braves, and Indians stand out as candidates to move a pitcher. Sonny Gray is going to be the big name. Jose Fernandez too. Expect to hear a lot of Gray and Fernandez rumors over the next, I dunno, eight months or so.

The Yankees have exactly one starter under control beyond next season (Luis Severino) assuming Masahiro Tanaka opts out, so they’ll be one of the many clubs looking for pitching this coming offseason. They always are. They were looking for pitching this past offseason, remember. Teams looking for an impact pitcher can’t turn to free agency with Strasburg signed. The Yankees will have more competition on the trade market, which seems to be their preferred way to acquire talent nowadays. Not great, Bob.

The Trade Market: As Sellers

On the other side of the coin, the Yankees will potentially be in position to take advantage of the seller’s trade market. Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda will be free agents after next season. The Yankees would be foolish not to see what those two could fetch in trades this offseason. Some team could look at Pineda, see a guy with ace ceiling, and pay big. Same with Eovaldi.

Pineda and Eovaldi are both reasonably young. They both have sexy peripherals, they both have big time stuff, and there’s a chance to get a draft pick when they do become free agents. That makes both very desirable in trades. If the Yankees do not plan to sign either long-term term, they owe it too themselves to put them out on the trade market and try to get a nice return this winter. It’s not necessarily about selling to rebuild. It’s about maximizing assets. Pitching will be at a premium.

The Tommy John Discount?

This past offseason Jordan Zimmermann became the first pitcher to sign a $100M+ deal after having Tommy John surgery. (Shin-Soo Choo was the first to do it overall.) Strasburg is the second, and he blew away Zimmermann’s deal. There is no doubt Tommy John surgery presents certain risks going forward, even for guys like Zimmermann and Strasburg, who have thrown hundreds of innings since having their elbows rebuilt.

Both Strasburg and Zimmermann signed deals that were probably smaller than most expected. Heck, I thought Strasburg and Boras were going to try to eclipse David Price’s pitching record $217M deal because he’s a few years younger and the market was less saturated. So many pitchers are having Tommy John surgery early in their careers that now these guys are hitting free agency in their late-20s and early-30s, their prime years. It’s not just the old workhorses getting new elbow ligaments.

The Strasburg and Zimmermann contracts could indicate there is some sort of discount applied to pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery. That’s relevant to the Yankees because Eovaldi and Ivan Nova are due to hit free agency soon, and both have the zipper. Is it possible elbow reconstruction means it would be cheaper to re-sign those two? Two data points like Strasburg and Zimmermann doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, really. It’s just an observation.

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Like I said, I wasn’t expecting the Yankees to be a serious player for Strasburg after the season. His signing does change the pitching landscape though, both the free agent and trade market, and that will affect the Yankees. Fewer available quality starters means more competition, and it also may represent an opportunity to turn players like Pineda and Eovaldi into other assets.

Cafardo: Nats could make Stephen Strasburg available in a trade this offseason

October 20, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

According to Nick Cafardo, there is a “lot of buzz” indicating the Nationals could make right-hander Stephen Strasburg available in a trade this offseason. Strasburg will become a free agent after next season, and he’s a Scott Boras client, meaning he will inevitably look for the largest contract. The Nats could try to move him for a package of players now rather than lose for a draft pick next winter.

Strasburg, 27, had a 3.46 ERA (2.81 FIP) in 23 starts and 127.1 innings while battling nagging lat, oblique, and back issues this season. He was out of this world after coming back from his first DL stint: 1.76 ERA (2.16 FIP) in 13 starts and 82 innings. Strasburg has a 3.11 ERA (2.91 FIP) in 120 starts and 708.2 innings since coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2011.

The Nationals figure to lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency this offseason, and while you always listen to offers for every player, it would be a little odd to trade Strasburg now. Washington is still clearly a win-now team — they’re not going to rebuild with Bryce Harper three years from free agency and Max Scherzer one year into a seven-year deal — and Strasburg’s a win-now piece.

Even though he is generally considered a disappointment because the prospect hype got out of control, Strasburg is a top tier starter when healthy, one of the 15-20 best in baseball. Last offseason similar-ish pitchers Rick Porcello and Jeff Samardzija were traded one year prior to free agency, though I’d rather have Strasburg than either of those two. Porcello was traded for Yoenis Cespedes and stuff, Samardzija for just stuff.

Strasburg’s trade value is probably at an all-time low right now after his injury riddled season, which is part of the reason why I have a hard time thinking the Nationals will trade him. They’ve gone to great lengths to try to keep him healthy long-term — their intentions were good, their methods? eh, not so much — and cutting ties now would just be odd. It would make me wonder what they know that we don’t.

Anyway, yes, I think the Yankees should make a push to acquire Strasburg if the Nationals do indeed make him available this offseason. Strasburg’s stuff and command is so good (when healthy!) that I don’t think moving from the NL to the AL will affect him at all. Plus it seems like a change of scenery could do him good. The Nats touted him as the savior and made him jump through all those hoops.

The Yankees have seven starters either under contract (CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka) or team control (Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Adam Warren) next season, though I’m not sure I see the makings of a championship caliber rotation there. Even one year of Strasburg is very valuable and would be a big help to the team’s chances of contention next season.

Link Dump: Hyped prospects, Strasburg, Harper, revisiting Girardi’s hiring

June 6, 2010 by Steve H 24 Comments

Some Sunday morning links for your reading, including a few draft related with the draft upcoming tomorrow.

Here is a good draft piece at ESPN by Jerry Crasnick examining some of the biggest hyped prospects ever. Even back in 1989 and 1990, when the baseball draft was a blip on the radar, I remember the hype surrounding Ben McDonald and Todd Van Poppel. If they were coming out today, I’m sure it would be pretty Strasburg-esque. Also some interesting “what ifs” in there as both Mark Prior and Bo Jackson were drafted by the Yankees but did not sign. With the careers they ended up having, it’s fun to wonder how much differently things could have turned out.

The Stephen Strasburg hype is hitting new levels as his first start is upon us this week. A town in Virginia is looking to change its name to Stephen Strasburg. It’s going to be tough to live up to the hype, yet I have a feeling that he will come as close as possible to meet expectations.

This article on Bryce Harper, while a few weeks old, is a very good read. I still cannot believe the way his character is being attacked. He’s 17 years old. He can’t even legally buy a scratch ticket yet. Everyone who is saying bad things about him, including calling him “just a bad, bad guy” needs to take a long look in the mirror and remember what they were doing as 17 year olds. Even though he doesn’t have the underdog status that so many people love, I’m really going to root for this kid.

In the way back machine, it’s interesting to read Keith Law’s piece when the Yankees hired Joe Girardi and how he thought they made a good call. Of note is the fact that while Joe Torre hadn’t developed much starting pitching in his time with the Yankees, Girardi in his one year with the Marlins got solid seasons out of Anibal Sanchez and Scott Olsen, as well as Josh Johnson. Johnson clearly has moved into ace status, but Sanchez and Olsen haven’t done much since. Is that because Girardi was good developing them, or that he overworked them and they’ve battled injuries since? It’s an interesting question to ask when thinking about the future of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain under Girardi’s watch. That being said, if overwork was an issue with the Marlins pitchers, I think that Girardi has likely learned from that, and the Yankees have a much better infrastructure in place to handle these young guys.

2009 Draft: Strasburg signs record deal

August 18, 2009 by Mike 94 Comments

Scott Boras asked the moon and the stars, and all he ended up getting Stephen Strasburg was a four year Major League deal worth $15.67M, according to Baseball America’s Aaron Fitt. It’s the largest deal in draft history, eclipsing the $10.5M guarantee the Cubs gave Mark Prior back in 2001. The Nats got a fantastic deal because they get a someone to stimulate their franchise at a “reasonable” price, but it’s also a great deal for Strasburg because he’s set for life based on how he pitched in college. There was no way this one wasn’t going to get done.