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What Went Right: Injury Bouncebacks

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Over the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the 2009 Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than the last.

At this time last year, the Yankees roster was anything but set. They had a huge offer out to CC Sabathia, and planned to pursue at least one other starting pitcher. That would help shore up the rotation, but clearly there were no guarantees. On top of that, the Yankees powerhouse offense went out with a whimper in 2008. Not only did the Yankees need another bat to enhance the offense, but they’d need contributions from players who underperformed in 2008.

With the acquisition of Nick Swisher, the Yankees had four players who underperformed in 2008. Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui missed much of the season with injuries, and Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher had poor seasons at the plate. Even with the potential addition of Mark Teixeira, the Yankees had a lot to worry about. Without contributions from at least two of those four, the Yankees offense wouldn’t have been nearly as formidable.

Two of four didn’t seem like asking a lot. Two of the players in question were proven veterans coming off injuries, and other two were players in their primes who each had a bad season. But as it turned out, all four bounced back. That turned out to be a key to the 2009 season. It meant the Yankees had above average contributors in eight out of nine lineup slots, with the final filled by an average player. How many other teams can boast of such a powerhouse?

Here’s how the Yankees in question performed in 2008, and how they bounced back in 2009. All stats are from FanGraphs, at risk of Jeremy Greenhouse calling me out.

Player 08 wOBA 08 WAR 09 wOBA 09 WAR
Jorge Posada .340 0.8 .378 4.0
Hideki Matsui .348 0.8 .378 2.4
Nick Swisher .325 1.0 .375 3.5
Robinson Cano .307 0.5 .370 4.4

Both Swisher and Cano both returned to their pre-2008 forms, which brought a huge boost to the offense. As you can see from the table, these were not insignificant improvements. Not only did they increase rate production over 2008, but they stayed healthy and therefore added that value over the course of the season. WAR favors Cano over Swisher by almost a full run, but that’s mostly because of the positional adjustment. Both had phenomenal seasons, especially compared to 2008.

Posada and Matsui contributed in two ways. First, they improved their net production over 2008. Even when healthy, Posada and Matsui weren’t quite where they had been in years past. Their wOBA numbers weren’t bad in 2008, but the Yankees have seen them perform much better. There was certainly fear that age had caught up with them, but they answered that charge by coming back to produce in 2009. That leads to the second part of their improvement, remaining healthy. Even with their production in 2008, they didn’t help the team as much because they were hurt for much of the season. In 2008 both stayed healthy enough to add a ton of value to the team, as evidenced by their WAR figures.

All four players certainly had the potential to bounce back after poor 2008 campaigns. Cano and Swisher were guys in their primes who had bad years, and Matsui and Posada were two veterans who faced injury struggles. During the 2008-2009 off-season, it would have been wildly optimistic to predict that all four would bounce back. The Yankees got lucky in that regard. All four contributed to the 103-win season, which set up the team’s run through the playoffs. The 2009 Yankees might have made the playoffs if only two of those four bounced back, but they wouldn’t have been nearly as dominant. While the improved pitching staff was a big part of the story this season, we shouldn’t overlook Posada, Matsui, Cano, and Swisher. Their contribution was a big part of making this season as special as it was.

What Went Right: The Offseason Pickups

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Over the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the 2009 Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than the last.

Tex, CC, and AJ

Every season starts with some new faces in Yankee pinstripes. Some are more notable than others, but they’re all expected to produce. The offseason brought three big time free agents to the 2009 Yanks, and after several high-profile flops in recent years, Yankee haters and the MSM were chomping at the bit to tear into the club should they fail. Unfortunately for those folks, they didn’t.

Mark Teixeira joined the Yanks on an eight year deal that will put $180M into his bank account, and his poor start (.182-.354-.338 in his first 99 plate appearances) already had some questioning his ability to play in New York. Tex answered all the doubters in a big way, hitting .308-.388-.598 the rest of the way, tied for the AL lead in homers (39), runs batted in (122), extra base hits (85), and total bases (344). His defense at first was top of the line, whether he was snagging line drives, ranging to his right, or scooping throws from other infielders.

The playoffs weren’t kind to Teixeira, but it seemed like each of his hits came at a crucial time. He singled off Joe Nathan ahead of Alex Rodriguez’s game tying two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth in Game Two of ALDS, winning the same game with a walk-off homerun in extras. Teixeira doubled in three runs to help mount a comeback in Game Five of the ALCS, and his homer off Pedro Martinez in Game Two of the World Series ignited the offense. His 5.1 WAR was the most by a Yankee first baseman since Jason Giambi’s monster first season in pinstripes.

For the first time in history, a team handed out two contracts worth over $100M in the same offseason, and that means Tex wasn’t the only new star in town. CC Sabathia signed on for seven years and $161M, giving the Yankees a sorely needed front-of-the-rotation starter still in his prime. Just like Tex, Sabathia struggled early, posting a 4.85 ERA as the team lost four of his first six starts. After those first six starts, though, Sabathia was everything the Yankees hoped for and then some. He pitched to a 3.06 ERA with a .226-.281-.360 batting line against in his final 28 starts, completing at least seven innings in 22 (!!!) of those starts.

The regular season was a sign of things to come for Sabathia, who was the absolute man in the postseason. He beat the Twins to start off the ALDS, the Angels twice (once on short rest) in the ALCS, and put together two commanding performances (again, once on short rest) against the defending World Champion Phillies in the Fall Classic. Sabathia threw 36.1 IP with a 1.98 ERA in five postseason starts, knocking more than three-and-a-half runs off his career playoff ERA in the process.

As if Teixeira and Sabathia weren’t enough, the Yankees added another impact player in A.J. Burnett, who inked a five year, $82.5M deal. Given his questionable medical history, Burnett had the highest flame-out potential of the three big free agent signings, but he proved to be the team’s most durable starter. He made every start without incident and didn’t have to leave any games with health concerns (even Sabathia had his little run-in with biceps tendinitis against the Marlins), and pitched into the sixth inning in all but two if his 33 starts.

Burnett may have been Robin to Sabathia’s Batman, but he turned in the biggest performance of the season (and his career) in what was the team’s most important game of 2009, shutting down the Phillies in Game Two of the World Series to tie the series up at one heading to Philly. Sure, he was frustratingly inconsistent, but the Yankees do not get to where they ended up without him.

The Yankees didn’t just stop at the free agent market, however. They also added an impact player via a trade. Long before Teixeira, Sabathia, and Burnett agreed to come to the Bronx, Brian Cashman fleeced Kenny Williams imported Nick Swisher from the White Sox in exchange for Wilson Betemit and two disposable minor league pitchers. Slated to begin the year as the fourth outfielder, Swisher was pressed into full-time duty after Xavier Nady blew out his elbow, and did more than replace Nady’s production.

Swisher hit .249-.371-.498 with 29 homers, seeing the second most pitches per plate appearances (4.27) in the AL. His .869 OPS was the 12th best among all outfielders in the game, better than brand names like Ichiro, Matt Kemp, Bobby Abreu, and Nick Markakis. While Swisher’s defense in the outfield was adventurous at times, he was solid overall and turned in several spectacular, heads-up plays in the postseason.

It’s not often that a team is able to bring in four above-average players in one offseason, let alone two that are bonafide franchise cornerstones, yet that’s exactly what the Yankees did last winter. They flexed their financial muscle to grab Tex and CC, used tremendous foresight to target A.J. over the imminently declining Derek Lowe, and flat-out stole Swish in a shrewd move. All four players met or exceeded expectations, and all four were huge reasons why the season ended on the Canyon of Heroes.

Photo Credits: AP, Getty Images, AP

What Went Right: The Bullpen Makeover

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Over the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the 2009 Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than the last.

Phil Hughes, Al Aceves, and David Robertson

The Yankees came into 2009 feeling good about their bullpen. After all, the same cast of characters posted the seventh lowest ERA (3.79), second lowest FIP (3.82), second best strikeout rate (8.66 K/9), and tenth best walk rate (3.53 BB/9) in the league last year. Unfortunately, that group of relievers was unable to repeat that performance in the first month of this season. Their FIP in April was awful (5.41) and their ERA even worse (6.46), and it was a major reason why the team was in third place with a negative run differential on May 1st.

Thankfully, the Yanks had enough bullpen depth to not just replace one or two pieces, but to make wholesale changes. The first step in the makeover came on April 25th, when Phil Hughes was summoned from Triple-A to take over for the injured Chien-Ming Wang. Al Aceves replaced the overmatched Anthony Claggett on May 5th, and David Robertson took the place of the injured Brian Bruney three weeks later. Edwar Ramirez and his 33 baserunners allowed (6 homer!) in 17.1 IP was banished to the minors mid-May, and Jose Veras was mercifully designated for assignment a little later on.

After allowing three earned runs or less in five of his seven starts, Hughes shifted to the bullpen in early June to make way for Wang. He became the primary setup man to Mariano Rivera in short order, allowing everyone else in the bullpen to settle into roles more suitable for their skills. Hughes held opponents to a .172-.228-.228 batting line as a reliever, posting a ridiculous 65-13 K/BB ratio and an unfathomable 1.83 FIP after moving to the bullpen.

Aceves, meanwhile, became Joe Girardi’s jack of all trades. He was used in long relief, short relief, in matchup situations, you name it. He allowed less than a baserunner per inning, and his 80.2 IP as a reliever was the most by a Yankee since Scott Proctor’s 100.2 IP back in 2006. Aceves effectively bridged the middle innings gap from the starter to Phil Hughes all by himself.

Most teams would be happy with a pair of guys like Hughes and Aceves in their bullpen, but the Yankees didn’t stop there. Rookie David Robertson developed from promising prospect into a bullpen force, leading all American League pitchers by striking out 12.98 batters per 9 IP (the second place guy, Joakim Soria, was more than a full strikeout behind him).

Once all of the new pieces were in place, the Yankee bullpen went from weakness in April to strength the rest of the way. They finished the year with a solid 3.91 ERA, and placed second in the league in strikeout rate (8.44 K/9) and third in walk rate (3.46 BB/9). The names had to be changed, but Girardi’s bullpen once again finished the season as one of the strongest in the game.

Photo Credits: Getty Images, Reuters Pictures, AP

What Went Right: Gardbrera

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Over the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the 2009 Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than the last.

Gardbrera

Mid-way through the 2007 season, it became apparent that Johnny Damon was no longer a viable option in centerfield for the Yankees. The team was somewhat up a creek without a paddle, as Damon still had two-and-a-half years left on his contract, and they had to turn to the unproven Melky Cabrera full-time in one of the most important positions on the field.

In 2008, Yankee centerfielders hit just .261-.320-.391, which represented the fifth lowest OBP and seventh lowest IsoP in the league. Furthermore, the group’s defense didn’t make up for their offense shortcomings, as they posted a collective +1.9 UZR/150. Melky got the lion’s share of the work in center (67.5% of the total innings), but he was demoted to the minors in mid-August after a 300 plate appearance stretch of futility in which he hit .227-.277-.280.

After flirting with various trade scenarios in the offseason, the Yankees came into Spring Training this past February with the same cast of centerfield characters as last year. Most (myself included) figured a mid-season trade for a centerfielder was in order. Instead, both Melky and Brett Gardner excelled in camp (Melky hit .349-.408-.508, Gardner .379-.446-.621), and the Yanks started the season with a somewhat unconventional platoon in the middle outfield spot.

Across the board, the performance in centerfield improved in 2009. The Gardbrera duo (plus a two game cameo from Jerry Hairston Jr.) hit .273-.338-.400, as Melky once again carried most of the load. Not only was the offensive upgrade welcome, but the defense also improved immensely thanks to Gardner. The team’s UZR/150 in center jumped to +7.5, third best in the AL. The league average offense and well-above average defense gave the Yankees the most production out of the centerfield position since Bernie Williams was in his heyday.

Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac, Getty Images

What Went Right: The seventh inning on

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Over the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than last.


Swisher celebrates one of the Yankees’ 15 walk-off wins. Photo: David Pokress

Against the 2009 Yankees, no lead was safe. Teams with four or five run leads heading into the seventh inning still had to beware. The slightest slip-up could lead to yet another Yankee comeback. Many teams fell victim to the Yankees late-innings machine, notably the 11 teams that lost to the Yankees in their final at-bat (with apologies to the Twins and Jays, who ran into the walk-off buzzsaw three times each). Those 15 wins made a huge difference in the Yankees season.

The Yankees led the AL in runs scored, OBP, SLG, and were just .002 behind the Angels in BA. From the seventh inning on, they led all these categories by a wide margin. Their 336 runs topped the next closest team, the Angels, by 48. They also led in all of the triple slash categories: .009 in BA, .020 in OBP, and .079 in SLG. That last stat owes much to home runs, which the Yanks led with 92. The next closest team, the Rays, had just 63.

Offensively, there was no team better than the Yankees from the seventh inning on. Yet for the team to enjoy those come from behind victories they also needed some key pitching performances. Without a shutdown bullpen to hold the other team in place, not even the Yankees’ late-innings offense can win that many games. To that end, the Yankees pitchers did their job, holding opponents to a .303 OBP from inning seven on, second to only the A’s at .302. They were also second best in slugging, .368, and tops in batting average against, .225. Unsurprisingly, they also struck out more batters than any other teams from innings seven on.

Let’s take a look at the individuals who were part of this incredibly run and how they contributed to wins with late-inning performances.

Derek Jeter: .341/.426/.512

Jeter had a stellar season at the plate, thriving in the leadoff slot. One of the highlights of the summer was watching Jeter slap the first pitch of the game into the shallow outfield for a base hit (or, in the case of Josh Beckett, over the fence for a homer). Yet Jeter saved his best performances for late in the game. Of his 18 home runs, eight came after the sixth inning. He also walked 24 times to 27 strikeouts, and stole five bases without being caught. When a comeback was in the works, Jeter was leading the charge.

Robinson Cano: .335/.371/.510

The knock on Cano in 2009 was his dearth of production with runners in scoring position. This naturally led to a narrative that painted Cano as a poor clutch performer. Yet in the later innings, when the Yanks mounted comebacks, Cano was at his best. His 105 total bases from the seventh inning on were second best on the team to Mark Teixeira. He also had two walk-off hits. While none of this erases Cano’s struggles with runners in scoring position, it helps dispel the idea that he can’t hit in the clutch. When the Yanks needed production late in the game, Cano was right there.

Brett Gardner: .330/.408/.527

Gardner hit just three home runs in 2009, and two came after the sixth inning. One of them was integral in a comeback against the Twins, an inside-the-park home run that got a quiet crowd on its feet. Gardner didn’t come to the plate as frequently as others on the team, but when he did, he produced.

Johnny Damon: .304/.401/.553

Early in the season, it seemed like Damon was coming up big all the time. Even when the Yanks eventually lost he provided some late-innings heroics. Ten of his 24 homers came in late innings situations, including his walk-off shot against the Twins. Damon also displayed excellent patience in the late innings, striking out just 26 times to 25 walks.

Hideki Matsui: .302/.403/.597

Early in the season Hideki struggled, but when the games moved into the later innings he thrived. He was one of three Yankees with an OPS over 1.000 from the seventh inning on. Nearly half of his 28 home runs came in that span as well (13 of 28). When we think of late-inning performances, it’s easy to think of A-Rod and his walk-off homers or Melky and his heroics, but Matsui was a huge part of the team’s success in that regard. His performance in the late innings might have been underrated.

Melky Cabrera: .298/.370/.427

If Melky could hit in innings one through six like he did from inning seven on, he’d be a major asset for the Yankees. I do think, after watching him improve in the 2009 season, that he can be that, though that’s a topic for another post. Melky had his share of walk-off moments, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He hit his best in the late innings, and that helped the Yankees achieve a number of come from behind victories.

Alex Rodriguez: .297/.428/.633

I can’t count how many times I sarcastically yelled “unclutch!” when A-Rod came up with a big hit in 2009. His two walk-off home runs only begin to tell the story of how he came up big in the late innings. Two of his biggest hits of the year, in fact, don’t show up on the walk-off highlight reels. His game-tying home run off Brad Lidge set up a Melky Cabrera walk-off. My favorite A-Rod hit, though, came in June against the Red Sox. Down 2-1 in the eighth, A-Rod smacked a double to put the Yankees ahead. They eventually lost the game, but that hit was just huge.

Mark Teixeira: .282/.376/.630

The 3-4-5 combination of Tex, A-Rod, and Matsui dominated the late innings. They all had OPSs above 1.000, and each hit at least 13 home runs in those situations. Teixeira led the way with 16, and also smacked 13 late-innings doubles. His 114 total bases led the team.

Jorge Posada: .254/.364/.468

Jorge didn’t put up the best numbers in the late innings, but that’s only compared to his teammates. In isolation, his hitting from the seventh inning on was pretty good, and he had two walk-off hits to show for it. His walk-off single against the Blue Jays on July 4th weekend prompted one of my favorite questions to Girardi this season, courtesy of Kim Jones. “So Joe, how’d you like the single by Jorge?” I only wish Girardi had answered, “Hated it, Kim. I wanted this one to go at least 16.”

Nick Swisher: .240/.358/.485

Thinking back on the Yankees late-innings dramatics, I don’t remember much of Swisher. His walk-off homer against Tampa was memorable because it was his first walk-off win of the year. But he also had a big homer to tie the game against the White Sox. Swish hit better earlier in the game, though he still had 83 total bases in innings seven on, more than Jorge, A-Rod, and Melky, and just behind Damon and Jeter.

In celebration of the Yankees late-innings performances, we have this:

What Went Right: Moose lands the big 2-0

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Heading into the season, I did not have high expectations for Mike Mussina. The right hander, 39 years old on Opening Day, was coming off his worst season and had been replaced in the starting rotation in September. That the Yanks were counting on Moose this year was, seven months ago, more than a little alarming.

Of course, as baseball fate would have it, Mussina threw one helluva season. After a 1-3 start that saw Moose lose twice to the Red Sox before the middle of April, we were ringing the death knell. But over his last 30 starts, Mussina went 19-6 with a 3.10 ERA.

On the season, he threw 200 innings for the first time since 2003 and racked up 20 wins for the first time ever. He allowed 214 hits and walked fewer than one batter per start. His season ERA was 3.37, and Mussina will garner some Cy Young votes this year.

So what changed? A quick glance at some of Moose’s stats reveal that he wasn’t that was able to change the way batters hit him. While he allowed line drives 21.9 percent of the time as he did in 2007, his ground-ball rate skyrocketed. Batters hit ground balls off of him 48.5 percent of the time this year as opposed to just 41.9 percent of the time last year.

In fact, Moose’s numbers should actually be better than they were. According to Baseball Prospectus, Moose’s BABIP, a measure of opponents’ average on balls in play, was .327, a remarkably high number. So while hitters were markedly worse against Mike Mussina in 2008, he should have been even better this year.

Mussina enjoyed this new-found success simply because he changed his approach to pitching. No longer in possession of a mid-90s fastball, Mussina had to adjust to a breaking ball-based, control approach to pitching. In the words of Hank Steinbrenner, Mussina had to become Jamie Moyer, and while the idea seems a bit preposterous, that’s exactly what Moose did this year. He became the AL version of the NL’s crafty veteran.

Going forward, nothing suggests that Mussina cannot continue to thrive this way. His command has always been stellar, and he’s a smart pitcher. But he also knows that he could go out on top if he retired today, and no one yet knows what the future holds for Mike Mussina. The Yankees need him to provide that solid presence in the rotation. While Mussina needs baseball anymore is anyone’s guess. But one thing is for sure; Mike Mussina’s 2008 was a very unexpected and very welcome surprise.

What Went Right: Praise be to Mo

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Mo probably didn't walk someone with this pitch.We are truly blessed. For the past 13 years, we’ve had the privilege of watching Mariano Rivera work his magic out of the bullpen. While he may never hold the career record for saves, he is the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball. You won’t find too many people, Yankee lover or hater, who will argue that point. In an aspect of the game wrought with volatility, Mo has been a pillar of consistency and excellence.

Let me take this a step further. Some might not agree with me, but I think in due time many of them will come around. Not only is Mariano Rivera the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball, he is the best pitcher, period, in the history of the New York Yankees. This is no disrespect to Whitey Ford, Ron Guidry, and the other workhorses of Yankees lore. They all have their places in history. Mo, however, is a once in a lifetime talent. I can’t even begin to imagine life in 2011.

While we’ve been examining what went wrong with the 2008 Yankees, Mo was among the few things that went right, though that doesn’t begin to describe his phenomenal performance. You might even be able to call 2008 the best, if not most dominant, season of Mariano Rivera’s career. He certainly earned the first year of his contract.

We’ll start with his raw ERA, 1.40, the second lowest of his career. The lowest came in 2005, 1.38, so there’s hardly a difference. Well, scratch that. The difference is that in 2005 Mo got hosed out of a Cy Young because Bartolo Frickin’ Colon won 21 games. Johan Santana also has beef. His ERA+ was actually better this year, 308, though it was 307 in 2005. He also allowed the fewest runs of his career, 11, even surpassing 2002, when he threw just 46 innings. His six walks were also a career-low.

None of those, however, is the most astonishing stat of them all. For that, I point to his WHIP: 0.665. I couldn’t believe it the first time I saw it. Seriously? That has to be some kind of record, right? Thanks to ESPN, we can check at least back to 2000. Surprisingly, there are a few closer than I had thought, but none as low as .0665. Want another has-to-be-a-record? Mo’s K/BB ratio was 12.83:1. Only Ben Sheets has hit 10.00 since 2000.

As if that wasn’t enough, he did it all with calcification on top of his AC joint, causing inflammation. How someone deals with that for 70 innings is beyond me. He’ll undergo arthroscopic surgery on Tuesday, but will be ready for Spring Training. Thank Mo for that.

It was an utter joy to watch Mo pitch ninth innings this season, as it has been since 1996. Each year, he continues to amaze. You’d never think a lanky guy like Mo, with only a fastball in his repertoire, could author such a dominant career. Yet he has, and there’s more to come. It has been a blessing and a privilege to watch Mariano become perhaps the greatest pitcher in Yankees history.